Sarnia-Lambton

Canadian Federal Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Sarnia-Lambton

Current Prediction:

Riding Profile:
Candidates:

Liberal Party:
	Roger Gallaway
Canadian Alliance:
	Dave Christie
Progressive Conservative Party:
	Paul Bailey
New Democratic Party:
	Glenn Sonier
Independent:
	Ed Banninga
Natural Law Party:
	Shannon Bourke
Independent:
	John Elliott
Green Party:
	Allan McKeown
Canadian Action Party:
	Rene Philliom
Marxist-Leninist Party:
	Andre Vachon

Incumbent:

Roger Gallaway

Previous Result:
on

Surrounding Ridings:
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex

Misc:

Population:	92 049
Avg Household Income	49 935

Submitted Information Submit Information here

	12/10/00	K.J. Lorenz	Email:
A strong Alliance team, boosted by the presence of Tom Long's family and frieds, will defeat Liberal maverick Roger Gallaway. Roger has been disbarred from the Law Society, and he has no friends in the Prime Minister's office to arrange national campaign events in the riding. The petroleum capital of Ontario will accept the Alberta influence of the Alliance more readilly than other regions, and Reform finished a strong second there in 1997.
	26/10/00	Christopher J. Currie	EMAIL: 8cjc1@qlink.queensu.ca
This riding went Liberal in the last Provincial election, and Roger Gallaway's maverick tendencies will work to his advantage. This should actually be one of the safest 905-area seats for the Liberals.
	30/10/00	HG	Email:
Roger Gallaway will win this one - although perhaps not by as much as he did in 97. He's known for speaking his mind on the issues - which voters in Sarnia-Lambton appreciate. Tom Long is a non-presence in his home town. Where is he? He's hiding in the back rooms - certainly not here. He's not running in any riding (like he promised he would). Dave Christie is not as well known as the Liberal incumbent. And provincially, this seat went Liberal in 99. This is as safe a Liberal seat as any.
	30/10/00	J	Email:
To begin with, Sarnia-Lambton is not part of the '905 belt', its in South Western Ontario, a region that has someting of a history of voting Liberal in in provincial and federal elections going back at least 3 or 4 decades. Provincially, the seat is held by a Liberal. Roger Gallaway is an independent-minded backbencher who sticks-up for his constituents, rather than kow-towing the whip's line, and people in the riding know that and appreciate it. He is very popular locally. THe Tories have completely disintegrated in Sarnia, and while many of them went over to the CA, just as many will vote Gallaway Liberal this time. Also, Gallaway won the re-election in 1997 with 47% of the vote. Combined, the PCs and Reform barely reached that figure. This election, Gallaway's vote will hold steady, while the right-wing will further consolidate around the CA, but they won't come close to knocking Gallaway off. Lastly, Tom Long might have been born in Sarnia, but he's not a hometown boy. People don't care for him in Sarnia especially after he chichened-out of running (as he had promised during the leadership campaign).
	03/11/00	A.S.	Email:adma@interlog.com
Disbarred or not, Gallaway's a cult hero through his crusade against cable TV extra billing. Dave Christie's "known", for better or worse, because he ran here for Reform last time. Tom Long's hometown connections may be tenuous--and after his failed leadership bid, a bit useless--but they allowed popular former MPP/LCBO chair Andy Brandt to fall on side with his protege (whether he's still there, I don't know). And a further boost to CA hopes is a history of good local mandates for CHP/FCP. But despite it all, I suspect voters'll still be voting with their channel changer.
	26/11/00	larry skoog	Email:
Lib will win due to local candidate- he must be having some pressure since went public with displeasure with Chretien's leadership- Ca may get 30% moral victory only far away from TO so avoid Star bias

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